This is my Writing 123 Research Paper

I have pulled names of other people out so no one thinks I am slandering them... 

Cougar Populations In Oregon

May 17, 2009, began as a beautiful spring day. The air was fresh with pleasant white, puffy clouds scattered throughout a gentle blue sky. As I was moving alpacas to a greener pasture, I crested the rise of a hill. I thought I seen a large animal slip through the opening of the fence across the pond; thought it had a long tail, decided it was probably just a deer and stayed focused on herding the alpacas. As I approached the next pasture, I sensed an eerie feeling and realized the alpacas were behaving peculiar, one even shaking so violently he had the appearance of Parkinson-like tremors. I had already forgotten about what I had seen and completed the task at hand. After a routine “head count,” I came to the conclusion Maverick, a 2 1/2-year-old, 165-lb alpaca, was missing. In our search, also discovered was another alpaca with seeping wounds on his flank and neck. He was clearly distressed as he allowed us to catch him without much effort. Upon closer inspection, the shocking reality of the morning’s events became clear. This was a cougar attack and the fate of the missing alpaca, however hopeful, was grim at best.

A call to the county sheriff was forwarded to the county wildlife biologist, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. This began my education and research of cougars and cougar populations. I had heard of cougar sightings periodically throughout the years but never heard of any livestock losses and never expected to encounter them. Everyone I knew heard about Maverick and I started to realize most everyone responded with a cougar accounting of their own, or they knew of someone who had a story. More unnerving was several of the stories were located near the farm.

The weeks following the attack became more routine and though we hadn’t forgotten Maverick, we had another 41 alpacas that kept our attention elsewhere.

August 15^th would be our next experience with this apex predator. The farm’s landowner had his grandchildren visiting. I watched as they went to the fence where Goose would come to get his expected daily head rub. Goose had been orphaned almost three years earlier when his mom died during his delivery. A very people-friendly alpaca, Goose always paid more attention to people than his pasture-mates. The grandchildren were there to play with Goose and he was nowhere to be found. Could this be another cougar attack or was he stuck at a fence somewhere? We had alpacas in the past with heads stuck in the fence or their fleece hooked up in a berry patch. We quietly hoped we would find Goose in a silly predicament. Goose was never found. The grandchildren lost out of playing with their buddy and Goose’s fate was probably the same as Maverick’s.

Just how many cougars were we dealing with? And how many times had we been seen ourselves? A second call to the sheriff’s office was met with a stern lecture on not calling them for livestock losses again. This raised our eyebrows. The dispatcher told me cougar sightings and attacks on animals happen all the time and unless I had a report about humans being attacked, I was only to report incidents to the county wildlife biologist.

What did she mean saying reports are called in all the time? How many are we talking about? How often? Were they near us? Just how many cougars were there? Why us and why now? Why poor ol’ Goose? We needed answers.

We learned cougars were being seen more and more often. A stray dog at our home introduced us to the county animal control officer. In our discussion, we also talked about the cougars at the farm. His advice? Arm yourselves! Stay vigilant and learn their behavior, it’s your only defense against cougars. He said “they are everywhere.” He proceeded to share accounts of cougars throughout Lane County, including several in Eugene alone. A walker had one follow him on 26^th and Chambers, several sightings above Churchill High School and even a cougar thumping it’s tail on the roof of a woman’s home in Southeast Eugene who had just returned home from walking her dog. Why hadn’t I ever heard of this?

Three weeks later and our third attack occurred. This time was an expensive female, Princessa! To make this even worse, Princessa was nursing a three-week-old male who was now orphaned. We were feeling the cougar population was quickly getting out of control and no hope of controlling it was in sight. I had been given the number to the Federal Wildlife Services Agent, after our first two attacks, but messages to him went unanswered in the past. This was even more serious, in my opinion, and I wanted him out there NOW. I called but just left a message. An hour later, I called again, still no answer. I called again. The following morning after reporting the attack to ODFW and complaining of the extreme financial loss, he said to keep trying to contact the trapper, “there are a lot of cougars out there and he’s probably busy.” 11:00 a.m. came and the message I left him this time was more a threat. “If I don’t hear from you by noon, I’m calling the media.” I got a call fifteen minutes later; he said he would be out by 3:00. He said he gets five to fifteen calls a day on cougar complaints and was the only federal trapper available, having a difficult time keeping up with the demand. I apologized for the threat but explained I was at the end of my rope.

The trapper arrived a little after 3:00. I was just beginning to walk again after a severely shattered leg three months before, so he had my fiancée show him around. I caught up with them just as they were inspecting Princessa’s fatal wounds. He asked if she had been on antibiotics since she had been killed but left behind. Of course, she had a difficult birth and had been on a short course of antibiotics. He told us it was probably why she wasn’t eaten and proceeded to tell us about various cougar behavior. “They are an apex predator, they have no enemies.” Due to the 1994 passage of Measure 18 in Oregon, a ban was placed on using hound dogs to hunt cougars and bears. He told us due to the ban, cougars and bears have been free to multiply with better life expectancies than before. He also confirmed we were dealing with cougars and not bears. He and my fiancée, left me at the barn and went on a search for Maverick and Goose. He showed him how to look for signs; “lion hair” left on fence tops, tracks and paths, to be watching above in the trees, “they liked to lounge over their kill spot” and how they can jump 20 feet from a stand-still. After an hour of searching and identifying signs, both Goose and Maverick’s remains were located. Their carcasses were across the creek and pond on the far side of the property.

The trapper also told us of a Pleasant Hill woman who was reporting a raccoon nuisance but a cougar came along and killed it. He also shared stories about children near Dexter watching a cougar run across the road near the bus stop, a mountain near Cottage Grove with six cougars residing on it and the stories kept going. He had one story after another of cougar incidents. “How many cougars are there,” we asked. With a concerned response, he said “way more than ODFW thinks.”

I sent emails to friends and family warning them of the cougars seen and the losses we experienced. I joined Facebook and warned even more. My soapbox was getting taller and I couldn’t warn enough people. What was most disturbing was how many of those I warned had a story of their own to share.

Sometime after our seventh attack, the news stations were reporting about three cougars that stalked two female hikers on Spencer’s Butte south of Eugene. I decided it was time to be heard and called the news stations. The reporter at KVAL was only interested if a human had been the target, KEZI was interested and scheduled time to come to the farm but KMTR said they were interested but needed to confirm our claims. Thirty minutes later, the reporter called back to cancel their interview, stating ODFW biologist confirmed our attacks but said we were isolated and not worth scaring the public. 

We started tuning in to cougar reports; at Albertson’s in Beaverton, one mile west of Eugene city limits which had impaled itself on a wrought iron fence, a few blocks from the capital building in Salem. We then started noticing missing person’s reports and wondered if it was cougar incidents.

I reported our eleventh or twelfth attack. While talking to ODFW, I asked him about a woman who was missing near Dexter, but her body had just been found. I sarcastically asked if cougar tracks were found in her area.  He brushed my questions off but said there are always cougars in that area.

I had really learned more than I ever wanted to on cougar behavior, habits, habitat and expectations. Every time I heard of another missing person, I instantly wondered if they were eaten by cougars.

November 2010 was a final straw, in a way, when our best female and her two-week-old baby was killed. This was followed in early December when three alpacas were all killed on the same day.

I had been frantically searching for a buyer for my final set of females. We had  purchased several as breeding stock and others were produced at the farm. The value of the remaining alpacas was over $100,000 but the economy wasn’t holding that price and I sold them for 6% their value. The day after the buyer agreed to the price, our 18^th alpaca was killed. Quick arrangements were pulled together and the females left for their new home two days later.

With time to think now, I began to really wonder just how many cougars were in Oregon. I learned cougar populations in Oregon have been a subject of controversy for many years. Also known as mountain lions and pumas, this apex predator is a beautiful and majestic animal but very dangerous with few natural predators. Early 1930’s records indicate less than 200 total cougars throughout the state due to an effort by migrating settlers to protect themselves. In the 1990’s, ODFW published population estimates were around 2000. Now in 2013, the population estimates are stated to be just over 6000.

I began to wonder if we were the only ones experiencing this and the findings were frightening. I found a rancher who had lost 26 horses to cougars, sheep ranchers with 60-100 losses, a small hobby farm with the loss of six goats near Sweet Home who hired a wildlife service agent and removed six cougars within two months. As I heard of more losses and more incidents, I found many more questions were coming up. Why were so many people having so many problems? Were sightings being reported but no action being taken?

I began to wonder about the missing person’s reports. They were missing with no trace of their whereabouts. After our first attack, a fisherman went missing on the Sandy River. They found all his equipment, said he was very well accomplished in the woods and just vanished. Most drowning victims are found but they never found him. I contacted the federal trapper up there because I just had to know. I asked if it was possible that a cougar or bear was responsible for this fisherman. He told me about how the ODFW used to trap and transplant cougars and bears in the Clackamas forest area so they had a lot of predators up there and that anything was possible.

There was the guy who vanished helping the cycling race in Glide. He had a brain tumor so they were accounting to that being the cause. Not me, of course. He vanished.

A University of Oregon professor went up to Cougar Reservoir for a day hike and never returned home. His car was found but no sign of him, and apparently he went up there for day-hikes a lot so he knew what he was doing.

Then, last summer was a hiker with his friends on the Santiam Pass; he stopped to take photos, they went to set up camp, and he was never found. Another was a young guy from Eugene that they found his truck in the French Pete Wilderness but never found him. Another was a story of a young 17-year-old in Salem. He was jogging on a Salem area trail in a remote part that cougars had been spotted before, but he was missing and never found.

After our tenth alpaca had been killed, I was asked by a group, Oregonians for Responsible Cougar and Bear Management, to testify in Salem in front of the legislature to share our experience and ask for support in an effort to change the laws. If laws were changed, it would allow more cougars and bears to be harvested with a better success rate. I am a statistical minded person and wanted data to use before tooting my horn, so to speak, but didn’t have the time to do the research. Instead, I called a few representatives and ask what I could expect if I did this. I found it to be a very heated topic and very politically motivated. Representative Sal Esquivel was very supportive, eagerly wanted me to testify, because he wanted less restrictions on hunting cougars. The same response came from Larry George, Sherrie Sprenger and Vicki Walker. Though I had a concerned ear when telling Nancy Nathanson, Ben Unger and Jeff Reardon, all Oregon Representatives, they all told me the support would not be enough to get a bill passed. After several condolence offerings, I discovered the only interest was political without any regard to our experience and chose not to speak. 

I had heard so many claims concerning cougar populations, both in favor of and against cougars, I began to research what the statistics proved. So, what did the statistics prove?

Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife published a report, “2006 Oregon Cougar Management Plan.” (OCMP) Within the 135-page report, details regarding growth, survival rates, attrition rates and hunting harvest numbers were thoroughly offered, giving me what I thought was perfect data to answer my questions.

In 1967, after a very concerted effort to keep the cougars from extinction, a declaration that 200 cougars were reported living within the state was celebrated. At that time, officials began to allow hunting of cougars under very strict control in order to maintain growth and allow hunters a chance to harvest them as well. The goal on ODFW’s website states a healthy population of at least 3000 cougars in Oregon but not to drop below 3000 and wrote the plan to define how that goal was going to be achieved.

Maybe I am just too statistical, but the ODFW website states “5700 cougars resides in Oregon” in 2006, but in 2006 Oregon Big Game Hunting Synopsis the population is stated at “over 6000.” I ignored this data and began charting the statistics. I found the report stated a female cougar in Oregon averages 2.8 cubs per litter and their litters occur on average, every 17.4 months. This sounded reasonable and I decided to keep the chart as simple as possible, therefore, rather than state my growth rate yearly, I gave each row a month and year for the identifier that was 17.4 months apart beginning in 1967, when the report was 200 cougars in Oregon.

My next goal was to decide how many of the 200 cougars in 1967 were male versus female. The OCMP stated to assume the population was 50% male, 50% female, therefore I made a row to account for the number of females, which was important to my calculations regarding the growth rate. In a way, I believe male population numbers are equally important regarding “Alpha Male” confrontations to assert dominance, but that will be a research project for another day.

As a professional livestock breeder, I know that not every female can reproduce, either due to age (immature and senior) or that they are barren. I generalized a number, as I couldn’t find a report regarding how many cougars were within this criteria and assumed 20% were not reproducing. Laboratory analysis of the reproductive tracts of numerous female cougars showed 2.8 cubs were born to each female at a rate of approximately 17.4 month intervals. The survival rate was stated as “an average of one” littermate survives to their first birthday. This was the only data the report stated for survival rates for the litters and at 2.8 cubs per litter, the number would account for 33% survival rate. Really? That didn’t make sense to me but I didn’t have any reason to believe otherwise and thought that was a pretty successful survival rate.

I then added the survival totals to the beginning of the year totals. I subtracted the documented harvest rates from these results and calculated an assumed attrition rate (death rate due to age) of about 2%, as stated by the local wildlife biologist in Springfield, Oregon.

I thought I was on my way to finding out the population numbers. After the cougar problems I had for the past four years, I figured this number was going to be much bigger than the ODFW was claiming and looked forward to seeing the results. My calculations exceeded that number so much, not to mention the paltry 6000 cougars ODFW seems to think, even I thought I did something wrong. 1.44 million cougars in Oregon! Really!? Had I missed some details or calculated incorrectly? The findings I came to would put fourteen cougars in every one square mile of surface in Oregon. I believe that to be my area but not all of Oregon, not based on what we have always been told there to be.   

So where did I go wrong? I read through the report again, it’s the only statistical data I could find that had information I needed to determine how many cougars resided in Oregon. I couldn’t find anything I had missed. I began to research other data regarding cougars. I found children’s books that stated the same basic numbers, websites and more websites with the same data. I began to research encyclopedias as well as call biologists at the Oregon Zoo and Wildlife Safari, asking them all to help me determine what I was missing. Results of 1.44 million cougars didn’t seem possible due to the fact ODFW has always said so few cougars were here. When confronted with the questions I came to in the report, the Wildlife Division at ODFW as well as other ODFW officials, agreed to and support the data in the report to be accurate but the math shows 1.44 million cougars within the state. So why do they claim less than 6500?

A representive at the Washington Park Zoo in Portland, Oregon had me read my numbers to her as she couldn’t quote average growth and survival rates off the top of her head. She felt that my data was correct but that I had to have done something wrong “because it just doesn’t seem possible to have that many cougars in Oregon.” Similar opinions were found with officials at Wildlife Safari in Roseburg. I even called College of Fisheries and Wildlife at Oregon State University. They even confirmed the data of the report; growth, death, survival rates, etc, was very close to accurate as well. He was surprised with 1.44 million but said they were very illusive and he wouldn’t be surprised if it was a much larger number than officials state.

I still didn’t believe the numbers and took a different approach. Go simple. In 1994, Oregonians voted to ban the use of hunting bears and cougars with hound dogs. That year, the population totals were stated to be 3000 cougars. The following year, the hunting synopsis stated the ban was working and they rebounded in population with now 3500 cougars in 1995. That showed a growth rate of 16%. That sounded reasonable. My data which was strictly from the Oregon Cougar Management Plan, was showing a growth rate before this new idea at 26%, 16% sounded much better. Disregarding any of my data regarding growth and attrition rates, I calculated the population numbers from 1995 to 2012 with the new rate of 16%. The end numbers at 16% growth rate since 1994 total 43,636 cougars. Sounds much better than 1.44 million, but I was still wondering if that was more logical.

I testified in Salem in March 2013, sharing my alpaca losses with a committee investigating cougar populations and the request to return hound use to select counties throughout Oregon. Jayne Miller, founder of Oregon Cougar Action Team also testified but in support of cougars. I sent her an email stating I was writing a report for my writing class and asked what the survival rate of cougar cubs was in Oregon in her opinion. She told me approximately only 10% cougar cubs survive per year and stated “only 2000 cougars resided in Oregon, not the 6000 ODFW claims.” So I took her numbers and did the calculations, but I included my death due to age rates as well, since her comment was simply regarding the survival rates.

Imagine my surprise when I finished those calculations! 16,035 cougars based on activist Jayne Miller’s growth rate opinion.  Even at Miller’s growth rate, the cougar population in Oregon in 1994, when her organization was supporting Measure 18, even those numbers weren’t adding up. With the success of the vote to ban the use of hound dogs to hunt the cougars, her organization stated how exciting it was to find cougars rebounding finally and that the growth was over 3000.

I took Miller’s growth of 10%, reduced it by 2% for death rates for age, and starting at 200 cougars in 1967, my calculations came to only 2600 cougars in Oregon in 1994, the year they claimed how it was appalling that only 3000 cougars resided in Oregon.

After all this research I conducted trying to find what the population of cougars were within the state of Oregon, I found everyone pulls numbers out of their hats to suit their agenda, no matter how they came to those findings, and begin to shout it from their rooftops so supporters will hear and those that can be swayed to believe them will listen. This is not just Miller. This includes hunter groups as well as ODFW. Miller still claims only 2000 cougars, hunting groups state between 13,000 and 14,000. When confronted with my statistics and results, ODFW officials still stand behind their data of 6000 cougars in Oregon for 2012.  

What bothers me is that laws are based on the 2006 Oregon Cougar Management Plan. If lawmakers did the numbers like I did, I think they would lift all hunting regulations on cougars and offer an open season, a sort of “kill them all down to no less than 3000 cougars” attitude, if there were really 1.44 million.  

When asked about the accuracy of the 2006 Oregon Cougar Management Plan, ODFW's Salem office adamantly defended all the data in it and told me nothing was missing. When I told him 6000 cougars was a huge difference from 1.44 million and needed help reconciling this, he told me he didn’t have time to deal with a writing paper and to email the office with my questions so he could have someone else answer them, then he promptly hung up the phone on me. Why the attitude? In a legislative committee to consider reinstating some counties the use of hound dogs for cougar management, Anglin, at ODFW also testified. When Representative Brad Witt asked how population numbers were calculated, Anglin stated they created the 2006 Oregon Cougar Management Plan, which was reliable and thorough data to determine population estimates. He stated the data is used as a model to continue determining population totals.

Okay, so the plan is accurate. Do the math. Anyone can do the research and the math but never find the population numbers to total as few cougars as ODFW is still claiming. I had math professors also verify my findings. If they are going to stand behind the plan and still stand behind their current population numbers of 5948, as stated in the news release determining big game regulations for 2014, dated 7 June 2013, they are discrediting themselves.

How many other wildlife, livestock, family pets and even humans are dying to support the dietary needs of a cougar? A cougar needs approximately 20 pounds of meat each day to sustain itself. Of course it does, it’s a carnivore. When cougars are spotted in city neighborhoods; spotted by visitors at Oregon Health Sciences University in Portland, near Willamette High School and in the parking lot of Oaklea Middle School in Junction City, you can naturally assume they are looking for their next meal and not just on a wandering stroll. How many people who see them in these areas believe they are there to look for a friend to play with, like a child? A rancher near Eugene did. She is the bison rancher west of Eugene who had a cougar impaled on her wrought iron fence. It was stated in the Register Guard that she didn’t feel the cougar was there to cause harm, that it was just there to play with the bison. I would disagree. A cougar is a wild animal looking for a food source. Wild cougars have no zookeeper tossing food to them, they have to wander their domain looking for the next meal. When they are hungry, they will make their move, no matter what the option is, be it wildlife, livestock, family pet or human. 

In my opinion, evidence would suggest cougars are not at all rare. It would seem logical that if Oregon cougars were as endangered as some groups would have you believe, there would be far fewer livestock/human/cougar conflicts and a lot less people would report their beloved house pets killed by a cougar. A report of a cougar chasing a dog in through the “doggie-door” in Dexter could help convince anyone. The facts and reports suggest that there is a larger population. Cougar sightings are increasing, as are the “Cougar Sighted” signs. I traveled to Astoria, made a crack that the park looked like cougar territory, and 15 minutes later we seen a small, yellow sign. Wondering what it was; figuring it was saying something about herbicide sprays, I went to read it. A cougar had been seen 4 days before and it was a warning to visitors to be vigilant. A drive down the coast and stop at Nehalem Bay Airport found another sign. That cougar was spotted just three weeks prior. Now that I knew what the signs were, I started spotting them all over, including Lane Community College’s south parking area. I have lived in Oregon my entire life and traveled throughout this beautiful state.

What now? Will anyone care? Will anyone listen? I spoke with many people with differing agenda’s and informed them of my findings. Most told me that the report was just written to give some statistics but weren’t intended to be all that reliable. No matter what the numbers stated, they were more concerned about their agenda’s and would continue their fight based on what numbers they felt were correct.

Why was this such an important topic for me to determine? What was my agenda? The safety of my friends and family as well as all Oregonians was first and foremost. I have been stalked, snarled at, watched and dealt with the loss of numerous alpacas I loved and cared for. That was my agenda. I have been at constant risk of becoming a part of the food chain myself. Every time I hear of another missing person on the news, my heart sinks with the thought of what that person experienced and if it was due to a cougar. Another agenda is to know the truth and to make sure the wildlife is managed properly, because a healthy balance is critical for a healthy ecosystem. The pro-hunting groups state in their argument that a cougar needs the equivalent of one deer a week to survive. ODFW admits this and the population of elk, deer and other small wildlife have reduced almost in half in many areas.

No matter what the population is, no matter who supports what numbers, one thing is certain. Oregon has a very controversial topic regarding the population numbers of cougars in Oregon and the damage done by those numbers is equally as controversial. Due to this, I may never know what the actual cougar population is. My loss of over $200,000 in business and livestock damage, that’s not controversial. How many cougars, how many bears, how many elk and deer, and now how many wolves? Those numbers will always be in question and based on the agenda of the person stating the data in the future, will dictate how the numbers will play out. Who loses? We all do. If the numbers are as large as I am finding, the number of missing persons will increase, the population numbers of other wildlife cougars prey on will fall and the number of cougars dealing with an overpopulation will explode. If the numbers are less than my findings, who will lose? We all will again. Cougars are important to our ecosystem.